Risk assessment in determining the edition circulation

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Kulchytska Kh. B., Predko L. S., Semeniv M. R. № 2 (78) 51-62 Image Image

An indispensable condition for obtaining competitive products in the printing and publishing business is to analyse and evaluate the risks of production, as well as take action to reduce them. Demand for printed editions, and therefore circulation, has become difficult to predict and involves more risk compared to electronic publications. Therefore, there is a need to identify sources and causes of risks, to assess them, which will allow one to forecast and manage the expected profit to some extent.

This paper researches the susceptibility to risk of the main parameters of the publication: circulation, amount of illustrations, scope, number of colors, complexity of illustrations and text, etc. We obtained sensitivity matrix and offered the rules on how to use it. The parameters most susceptible to risk are the print run and the number of colors used in that edition.

We have analysed the sources of risk in evaluating the edition circulation. The safety margin of the print run is defined as the difference between the actual and critical values of the edition print run.

Examples of the calculation of the expected print run have been given. This paper analyses objective, subjective methods and method of analogies. Probability was cal­cu­la­ted by analytical method. Bayes’ formula calculates a priori and a posteriori chances of obtaining probable print run.

Different methods of assessing the risk of print run have been tested by variation amplitude: dispersion and standard deviation of the average expected circulation. A simplified method has been applied in cases where risk was characterized by estimating the maximum and minimum circulation values. A relative risk measure, the coefficient of variation, is recommended for additional risk assessment.

Preliminary evaluation of the risk of circulation will reduce the negative effects of errors in its assessment.

Keywords: risk, expected print run of the edition, sensitivity matrix, variability, a priori and a posterior probability of circulation.

doi: 10.32403/0554-4866-2019-2-78-51-62


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